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Like a tropical storm churning up the East Coast or the Santa Ana winds whipping up in parched Southern California, the teetering economy of early 2008 has legions of American workers wondering whether it’s time to hunker down or to consider evacuating to a job in a more secure career field.
To be sure, the growth of the American economy and the jobs it generates have shriveled in recent months. Gross domestic product grew at a negligible annual rate of 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2007, an abrupt slowdown from 4.9 percent in the previous quarter, according to advance estimates from the Commerce Department. The United States may be on the verge of a recession, defined as two or more consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.
Meanwhile, US employment declined by 17,000 jobs in January 2008, after growing for each of the previous 52 months, according preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Recessions typically come several years apart.
Time for a Change -- or Not?
Does all of this make 2008 a bad time for you to consider changing careers, whether to lessen the impact of the economic storm, to change your line of work or for some other reason? Not necessarily, in part because recessions -- though integral to the inevitable free-market cycle of boom and bust -- are highly unpredictable in terms of when they commence, how long they last and how much damage they do to companies and their employees.
“Timing decisions is the wrong way to go, whether it’s financial markets or career changes,” says Jared Bernstein, senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute.
Indeed, there may be no reason to hold back on making a big change if you encounter a good prospect for a new career. “If you’re thinking about changing careers and you’ve got people who know you and are willing to take a chance on hiring you, layoffs are less likely to be an issue,” says John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Of course, if you want to change careers without starting over at entry level, you may need to go back to school. A year dominated by a recession or deep economic uncertainty can be an excellent opportunity to do so. “This might be a good time to get an advanced degree or substantial training,” says Challenger.
Someone Is Always Hiring
Even when there is no net creation of new jobs, turnover spawns millions of open positions, most of which must be filled to keep corporate America’s trains running.
US hires declined only moderately in the most recent period measured, to 4.65 million in November 2007 from 4.99 million a year earlier, according to BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report. Put another way, even as the economy slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2007, American employers made well more than 4.5 million hires.
Wait for Economic Stimulation?
What about the notion of putting off a career change to see what sort of economic stimulus package is enacted, or who’s elected president? Many economists say you’re giving Congress and the president too much credit if you believe that in the short run they can do much to steer the $14 trillion US economy.
“Most stimulus packages are singularly unimpressive in their effect, in part because they do not get under way until the economy already is recovering on its own,” writes resident scholar Norman Ornstein on the American Enterprise Institute Web site.
And even if you thought you knew when a recession would end, that wouldn’t tell you when you’d see a favorable job market. Although economic growth typically stimulates job creation, the end of a recession usually doesn’t coincide exactly with an upturn in a weak labor market.
Keep in mind Bernstein’s perspective on trying to synchronize your career search with the ups and downs of the macroeconomy: “The professional economists get the timing wrong all the time.”